This is the big question, and nobody has a definite answer yet.
On the downside:
- The program will most likely face strong competition from other search engines in the near future.
- The proliferation of text based ads could make users "text-ad blind" the same way as they have already become "banner-ad blind", causing click-through rates to drop.
- There is always the potential for abuse, since some unscrupulous program members may violate the program's rules and click on their own ads, inflating the advertisers' click-through rate and forcing them to decrease their pay-off per click.
On the positive side, I believe that Google AdSense's success is not only due to the fact that they deliver text based ads instead of banners, but because those ads are served by Google. The credibility and brand equity that Google enjoys is huge, and I expect them to continue to beat other search engines and advertising networks that may eventually jump on the bandwagon.
However, it is reasonable to expect at least a slight decrease in click-through rates and pay-off as a result of the increased competition.
For tips and tricks on how to maximize the return of your AdSense program, you can read The Definitive Guide to Google AdSense, by William Charlwood, the complete step by step road map for making and maximising your income from Google's AdSense program.
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